Chancellor Friedrich Merz confronts mounting challenges, intensifying German political turmoil. His leadership faces significant strain from a surging extremist right-wing AfD and dismal approval ratings. Furthermore, key state elections loom just a week away.
Recent polling data reveals a stark reality for the Chancellor. Only 14 percent of Germans believe Merz is the right person to lead the government, while 78 percent disagree. Even a majority of voters within his own CDU and CSU parties no longer support him.
Separate surveys paint a grim picture for the ruling coalition. The AfD recently climbed to 29 percent nationally, increasing its support by a point. Meanwhile, the CDU and CSU remained static at 20 percent, trailing the AfD by nine points, and the SPD registered 13 percent.
Speculation about a potential CDU minority government under Merz has circulated, though government officials dismiss these reports as entirely fabricated. This followed news suggesting that a minority government scenario was under consideration within the chancellor’s inner circle.
Following a decisive defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD more than doubled the CDU’s vote share, Merz admitted to mistakes. He promised to improve communication of his government’s policies, emphasizing the need for emotional connection with the public. However, in a recent Bundestag speech, Merz largely focused on criticizing the AfD. He accused the party of advocating for what amounts to “ethnic cleansing” through its use of the term “remigration.”
As state elections approach in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, senior CDU and CSU figures remain publicly reserved about Merz’s position. CSU leader Markus Söder, for instance, offered a notably unenthusiastic defense. When asked about Merz’s suitability, he merely stated that the Chancellor supports the ongoing reforms.
Pressed further, Söder suggested any alternative leader would encounter similar difficulties. He also clarified that the CSU would not undermine the Chancellor and that he bore no responsibility for the CDU’s internal affairs. Meanwhile, CDU politicians in Saxony openly express dissatisfaction, calling for significant party changes. One Bundestag member, Florian Oest, urged a new reform agenda centered on economic strengthening and questioned Merz’s capacity to lead such a shift. After their poor showing in Saxony-Anhalt, Saxon district chairs, including Oest, reportedly demanded swift talks for a CDU relaunch.
Tensions also simmer within the capital’s CDU ranks, impacting coalition dynamics. Christian von Stetten, chair of a powerful CDU/CSU parliamentary group, openly attacked the SPD leadership. He criticized Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, deeming her position untenable due to alleged blockages of urgent reforms. Von Stetten also deemed Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil’s draft budget unacceptable, citing a failure to implement necessary spending cuts and the proposal of new taxes alongside record new debt.
Klingbeil rejected these accusations, highlighting Germany’s challenging times and the imperative for government unity. He accused elements within the CDU and CSU of undermining the coalition. Klingbeil pointed to the existence of a parliamentary majority comprising the CDU, CSU, and AfD, expressing his hope that most within the mainstream parties did not desire such an alignment. Even within the CDU, von Stetten’s broadside drew censure. The CDU/CSU parliamentary group’s chief whip, Hendrik Hoppenstedt, publicly stated that airing coalition disputes served no purpose beyond self-promotion and called for an end to constant public shaming.
Recent local elections in Lower Saxony yesterday saw the CDU secure 27.7 percent, the SPD 24.5 percent, and the AfD 16.5 percent. The Greens received 13.6 percent, with Die Linke at 5.9 percent. The CDU holds cautious optimism for Berlin’s state election, where it might unseat the extremist far-left Die Linke and claim the mayor’s office. However, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU anticipates a potentially historic low. Polls show their support at merely 7 percent there. The AfD currently leads, though SPD state premier Manuela Schwesig has been narrowing the gap.
Smaller parties, including the CDU and Greens, risk falling below the threshold for state parliament entry in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. CDU Secretary General Franziska Hoppermann criticized Schwesig for her highly personalized campaign. Hoppermann argued this approach weakened the political center and ultimately benefited the AfD, deeming it an irresponsible strategy. The prospect of the Chancellor’s own party appealing to a Social Democrat for more votes would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.
